How Small Businesses Respond to Uncertainties
Financial consultant finds clients reluctant to plan in an uncertain climate.
Pending changes in tariffs, taxes, regulations that may be imposed immediately or within the next year or two make it difficult for small and mid-sized business to strategize with any sense of assurance.
Two key questions to explore:
1. How does a small and mid-sized business executive handle the uncertainties of 2026?
2. How can a chief financial officer (CFO) predict profitability with so many unknowns?
The successful business executive strategizes and executes policies and procedures for today while planning for tomorrow. He/she is concerned with both stabilization and growth.
Moore’s Law
This requires an understanding of the market and the ability to make appropriate operational and financial decisions that keep pace with anticipated changes. The principles of Moore’s Law which related to advances in technology have now become integral to all businesses. “In 1965 Gordon Moore, who would later become one of the founders of Intel, a chipmaker, wrote a paper noting that the number of electronic components which could be crammed into an integrated circuit was doubling every year. This exponential increase came to be known as Moore’s law.” Technology Quarterly Change is constant and moving at a more rapid pace than in the past. However the pending changes in regulations in the next year or two have exceeded the principles of Moore’s laws.
As a financial consultant to small and mid-sized business, I have assisted hundreds of companies on the path to success. This requires providing guidance in the process and finding the appropriate resources to expand their markets. I am currently polling my clients to see how they are handling the possible changes in Federal policies. How are the uncertainties impacting their immediate expansion plans? What I have found is that most of my clients are reluctant to plan too far in the future.
The feedback captured were in four primary buckets:
1. They cannot project their costs of goods when they cannot project the changes in Federal policies.
2. They cannot offer employee benefits when they are unable to determine their profit margins.
3. They cannot quantify or qualify many of their costs. They cannot prepare realistic cash flow projections.
4. They cannot consider the assumption of debt obligations when they are unable to define their profits.
These small and mid-sized business do not have the inside track in Washington. Their news comes from TV, radio, social media, and colleagues. The news they receive is filtered and often confusing. The future for many businesses is surviving the uncertainties of 2026. They are unable to do long range strategic planning for corporate growth.
The companies within industries that are most impacted are:
1. Companies that rely on imported goods from specific countries will be directly impacted.
These include many retailers, the fashion industry and manufacturers which are dependent on parts or components of the products they produce.
2. Companies that do not import but rely on highly trained technicians will be impacted with increased labor costs if immigration policies are more restrictive.
This would include companies in Silicone Valley who compete for those skilled IT and engineering.
3. Companies may benefit from tax reforms. If the corporate tax rate is restructured and/or money parked offshore can be repatriated.
It has reported that the top five US tech have $2.1 trillion dollars in profits parked overseas this represents just over one-fifth of all dollars overseas.
4. Companies may benefit from reduced regulations.
Many regulations are necessary and most are costly. Included in this group are manufacturers. Will the changes affect the currency markets and how will that relate to their sales? These are unknowns that the most respected economists write about without any certainty. Uncertainties result in restraint. I anticipate that money will be chasing deals: a reversal from the norm. But the risk factors for both the borrower and the lender will be increased because nothing can be predicted with certainty.
Related articles:
Business Leadership For Uncertain Times
